Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mixed, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis) rose 5.3% month-over-month in September, according to Cox Automotive.
This brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 204.8, an increase of 27.1% from a year ago and a new record in a record year.
Manheim Market Report (MMR) values experienced accelerating weekly increases throughout September.
The three-year index rose a net 4.6% in the full four weeks of the month.
MMR retention, which is the average price difference from the current MMR, averaged 100.8. This means that the market prices were ahead of the MMR values.
Year over year, all major market segments recorded seasonally adjusted price increases in September. Vans and sport utility vehicles posted the most significant year-over-year performance, while the remaining car and pickup truck segments lagged the overall market. No segment recorded a month-over-month decline.
The combined sales of large rental, commercial and government buyers fell 21% year over year in September. Rental sales fell 17% year-on-year in September.
Commercial sales are down 18% year over year in September and are up 13% since the start of 2021 compared to 2020. Including an estimate of fleet deliveries in the channel of dealers and manufacturers, the report estimates that the remaining retail sales fell 23%. year-over-year in September, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 10.7 million, down from 14 million last September and the 13.8 million rate in September 2019.
Decreasing risk of rental mileage
The average price of risky rental units auctioned in September increased 37% year-on-year. Rental risk prices are up 12% compared to August. Average at-risk rental unit mileage in August (at 56,600 miles) was up 33% from a year ago, but down 19% month-over-month.
Vehicle sales continue to decline
According to Cox Automotive estimates, total used vehicle sales fell 13% year-on-year in September. The report estimates that the SAAR used in September is 36 million, down from 40.9 million last September and down from 36.5 million SAAR in August. The retail SAAR estimate used in September is 19.5 million, up from 21.7 million last year and stable month over month.
Using a continuous seven-day estimate of the supply in used retail days based on vAuto data, the MMR finds that the used retail supply peaked at 114 days on April 8, 2020. The supply at Normal used retail is about 44 days. It ended September at 37 days, which is below normal levels. The report estimates that the wholesale supply peaked at 149 days on April 9, 2020, while the normal supply is 23 days. It ended in September at 18 days.
Total new vehicle sales for September were down 25% year over year, with the same number of sales days as in September 2020. On a monthly basis, new vehicle sales in September fell by 7%. The SAAR for September was 12.2 million, down from 16.3 million last year and the rate of 17.2 million in September 2019.
Originally posted on Car fleet